Not only have the Orioles lost 8 in a row, they’ve also lost any semblance of a major league pitching staff, the ability to hit with runners in scoring position, and seemingly, their own self-respect.

In the month of July, during which the Orioles have lost 11 of their last 12 and 8 games in a row, the team ERA has been a frightening 7.80.  Pretty bad, right?  But when you factor in that during that same time span, the team has hit .236, it really kicks it up a notch.  If you weren’t a savvy Orioles fan, now long accustomed to excruciating displays of futility, you might think that kind of thing would be hard to do.

I’m utterly at a loss to explain how terribly the team has played recently.  As much as I believe in many of the young players the Orioles have drafted or acquired over the last several years, at moments like these, it’s difficult to see any light at the end of the tunnel.

Take for example three (once?) promising members of our starting rotation: Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton.  Even Matusz, the polished college draftee that any team would gladly take suddenly can’t pitch more than 5 innings without giving up 4 runs.  Does it all go back to the intercostal strain that kept him out of the starting rotation for the first 2 months of the year?  Then there’s Arrieta, who despite having 9 wins, has had an elbow injury flare up several times, which has prevented him from being a rotation anchor that this team desperately needs.  While it was probably asking too much for Zach Britton to continue his performance from the beginning of the season, he suddenly can’t seem to get anything to go his way either.

All three of these pitchers are highly regarded, particularly Matusz and Britton.  I’ve got to believe that present struggles included, most any team would he happy to have them.  What I simply can’t understand is what cruel twist of fate would lead them both to struggle so mightily at the same exact point in time, thereby costing the Orioles whatever momentum they might have built at the end of last season, along with any hope for a better season this year.

Add to that the fact that, right about now, as the Orioles are contemplating not *if* but rather to *what extent* they want to be sellers at the trading deadline, even some of their most potentially valuable trade chips seem to sputtering.

That’s worse than bad.  That’s horioleble.

I’ve had a recurring thought over the past several years that goes something like this:  why can’t the Orioles, even if by dumb luck, just have one magical season?  Just think of all the teams that in the course of 15 years have one really great season, which is enough to stoke the energies of their maligned fan base and generate some enthusiasm for the future. How can it be that the Orioles haven’t even managed to stumble into mediocrity?

I feel somehow transported back to my inaugural ESB post, regarding how best one can identify a reasonable timeline for turning around a baseball franchise.  Only now, standing here at the precipice of another total meltdown, as I reread those words, I’m beginning to wonder if the Orioles opportunity to restore hope to this franchise isn’t nearly lost.  In that post, I wrote that while our situation was desperate, we hadn’t yet reached the 11th hour.  Sadly, I feel now that we either have, or very shortly will.  The times call for action.

“If you’re going through hell,” Winston Churchill once said, “keep going.”

I guess that’s what we have to do.

Five years ago, they couldn’t win because they didn’t have the right players in their system and made ill-advised free agent signings.  Remember Jamie Walker?  Three years ago, they did have some talented young players, but they weren’t quite ready for the spotlight.  Now that they finally do seem to have a quorum of talented young players, they seem not be able to avoid injuries, or total talent regression.

The inconsistency of the starting pitching, injuries, and a lack of timely hitting have all contributed to a subpar performance for the 2011 team.  Still, there are some signs of hope.  JJ Hardy has demonstrated himself to be an excellent shortstop, maybe the best in the American League so far this year.  Adam Jones is having a big season, and seems to have greatly improved his approach and strike zone discipline.

Although it’s tempting to only look at the negatives, the question that most interests me is this: how can we get better?  How can the Orioles take what they’ve learned so far this year, process it, and come up with a roadmap that means the future will be better?  To my mind, failure is only worthless if you don’t learn anything from it.  Based on what we’ve seen so far this season, here are 3 things that I think the Orioles MUST do, to avoid sacrificing the glacial progress they’ve been able to realize over the past couple of years.

1. Extend Hardy, Jones, and Wieters.

The challenge of building a better baseball team rests chiefly in acquiring talent.  Hardy, Jones, and Wieters represent some of the Orioles most successful trades and best talent evaluation.  While I understand that many will point to Hardy’s history of inconsistency and injury, I would argue that at 28, it’s well worth exploring the option of an extension if he would be amenable to reasonable contract terms.  I’m not suggesting we should offer Hardy a 7Y/100M deal, but I think it would definitely be worth having him around if he would sign a 3 or 4 year contract.  I also agree with Andy MacPhail that we need not worry about blocking what we hope is our future in Manny Machado by offering Hardy an extension.  As MacPhail noted, we need to worry about getting enough talented players in our system that we’re left with difficult choices about who best completes our roster.  Until we reach that point, any discussion about blocking players is premature and misguided.

While I suppose one can always conjecture that a player over the age of 25 (or so) is going to decline in value, I think one also has to consider the converse.  Acquiring young players is wonderful and exciting, but they are largely unproven commodities.  For every Joey Votto or Ken Griffey Jr., there are hundreds of can’t-miss prospects who never amount to much, or at least take a while to develop.  I’m sure everyone wishes they had an Evan Longoria or young superstar who obviously deserves a huge multiyear deal, but the fact is that most teams don’t. If we spend all our time waiting to offer a multi-year deal to someone under the age of 28, who is an elite player, and who has no history of injury, I think we’re going to be waiting a long time.

I also think the time is right to offer extensions to Jones, who is about to enter his arbitration eligible years, and who is showing signs of beginning to realize his potential.  Despite occasional defensive miscues, Jones also makes his fair share of great defensive plays, and has really come around this season with his batting average.  He’s also starting to hit for more power, has good speed on the bases (though not an adept base stealer), and is a team leader.

Finally, I think the Orioles should go ahead and lock up Wieters, to complete their nucleus of young, talented players.  While continuing to make improvements on offense, Wieters has established himself as probably the best defensive catcher in the game.  He routinely blocks wild pitches, throws out would-be base stealers at an alarming rate (even while working with a staff that doesn’t hold runners well), always blocks the plate, and by all accounts, calls a really great game.  Matt has also demonstrated himself as a quiet leader, routinely showing up early to the stadium, and dealing with a pitching staff that seems to make a roster move every other day.

If they tendered all of these signings, then the Orioles would have Wieters, Jones, Hardy, Markakis, Matusz, Arrieta, and Britton to build around for at least the next four years.  They may need more talent to get where they are going, but I’d say that’s a pretty solid core group.

2. Sign Dylan Bundy.

The second thing the Orioles absolutely must do is sign Dylan Bundy.  As much work as they’ve done to assemble young talented pitchers, it is absolutely critical that they bring him into the fold.  If you aren’t going to spend money on free agents, then you at least have to spend whatever kind of money it takes to acquire top talent in the draft.  By all accounts, Bundy is very much an elite prospect.  Though I’m in general against the concept of kids holding teams hostage for millions of dollars despite not having played an inning of professional baseball, I don’t think the Orioles are in any position to quibble about sign-ability or contract demands.  It’s an imperative that all struggling small market teams at least sign these young prospects, if they hope to give themselves any chance at competing, especially in the AL East.  It’s possible that Bundy might turn out to be mediocre — or maybe he’ll be the second coming — but the Orioles need to be sure that they invest whatever resources are necessary to find out.  After all, if you don’t sign top-flight free agents, and you don’t sign top-quality prospects, what exactly is is that you are doing?  Losing, I guess.

3. Sign Prince Fielder.

Grow the arms, buy the bats.  The time has come to exercise the second part of that philosophy.  While I won’t say that Prince Fielder is the best 1B who ever lived, he does seem to be a very good one, who is rarely injured, young, and consistently hits for power. In order for the Orioles to fill their hole at 1B after this season, and dramatically upgrade their power hitting potential, I think Prince Fielder is the player that they must sign.

I understand that some will say he isn’t the greatest defensive first baseman, or a very fast baserunner, and maybe he isn’t.  But I do think that players of his offensive caliber still don’t come up at auction very often, and more to the point, he would fit in perfectly with the Orioles intended timeline for talent coalescence.  Assuming the Os do take my advice and keep Jones, Hardy, Wieters, Britton, Matusz, and Markakis, then their window for competition with those players under contractual control extends out about 4 years or so, depending on the terms of the individual agreements.  That would mean they would most greatly benefit from signing a player at a position of need, who can step in and contribute immediately to the team.  Fielder could do exactly that.

To argue the point from a different angle, I think the Orioles need to acquire Fielder as a proof of concept about their developmental philosophy.  While I would concede that there are times when restraint is justified when paying out large contracts, I would argue you also must not fail to act when you have the chance to sign a player who fits in to your philosophy.  To pass on Fielder, however grandiose his contract demands, would to to me be tantamount to a forfeit of of the gentle signs of hope they’ve toiled so long to nurture; it would be a concession that they don’t believe in what they’ve been doing, and don’t know when they will be ready to compete.

Barring a miraculous singing from the bottom of the scrap heap in the style of the Tampa Bay Rays (think 2008 Carlos Pena), the Orioles absolutely have to sign an excellent player when they have the chance to do it.  Especially when that player fills a position of need, supplements pre-existing talent, and is still relatively young.

Right now, there’s no question about it, things are not going well.  But in order to avoid sacrificing fragile signs of progress, it’s imperative that the Orioles not lose sight of what assets they do still have available, and maintain a forward trajectory.

Such an early and sudden end to Roberts’ career would be highly unpalatable for a couple reasons. First is the most obvious: his tremendous value to the team. As previously stated, his combination of speed and OBP (above .350 for the last 4 years) make him a very ideal leadoff hitter and very valuable to the offense as a whole. He’s not just a punching Judy, singles hitting leadoff hitter either. When healthy, he is a veritable doubles machine, ranking 1st or 2nd in the AL in doubles 2004, 2005, 2008 and 2009. What’s more, in addition to leading the AL in doubles in 2009 with 56, he also set the record for doubles by a switch hitter while doing so. So his contributions on offense alone are certainly tangible. And without delving into the complex world of defensive metrics, I think we can also safely say Roberts is an average to slightly above average defender at 2B. The whole package translates into a player most teams would love to have and one whose absence you certainly notice in the team’s performance. Buck Showalter himself has often cited the return of Brian Roberts as one the primary reasons the O’s went 34-23 under him last season after going 32-73 prior to his arrival.

But perhaps the larger reason Robert’s departure would be disastrous for the O’s is that there is no one even remotely ready to replace him. For most of this season, Robert Andino has been called upon to serve as his replacement, and he’s done fairly well in that role, posting a .253 BA and .333 OBP. He noticeably the lacks the doubles power of Roberts though, as well as the threat of stealing bases. However, Andino is without a doubt an equivalent or better defender than Roberts, so the team loses nothing in that department. In other words, you can live with Andino at 2B, but the drop-off from Roberts is still noticeable.

There’s also Ryan Adams, whose main problem might be that Buck Showalter seems to hate him, as he has appeared in only 9 games since his call up from AAA Norfolk on May 20. Adams has always been a very encouraging offensive prospect throughout his time in the minors, even demonstrating very Roberts-esque offensive tendencies, including a 2010 campaign at AA Bowie where he hit a club record 43 doubles. He was also hitting .303 with a .373 OBP at the time of his call-up to the majors. All of this points to the distinct possibility that Adams could be an everyday offensive contributor at the major league level. The main thing holding him back from the future, which has always been a concern of scouts, is his defense. Now, since I  have never seen Adams play in the minors and Buck seems unwilling to give him any sort of chance to prove himself in the bigs, it’s hard for me to say personally how valid these concerns are and to what extent, if any, Adams has already overcome them. But you would think with Roberts’ future being so uncertain, it’d be time to find out whether Adams has any hope of being his long term replacement.

For now, I don’t think the team is suffering with Andino at 2B and I could definitely live with him at the position for the rest of the season. But I think everyone is hoping for a better option in the long term, including Andy MacPhail. Personally, I’m hoping we get B-Rob back and he stays healthy for the rest of his contract, allowing someone like Jonathan Schoop to mature and possibly replace him. The odds are against it, but that’s the reality of life as an O’s fan, so I’ll keep believing it can happen until I’m forced to believe otherwise, because I’m not giving up, and hopefully neither is Brian Roberts.

To start, this isn’t Tillman’s only standout performance this year.  He also had a brilliant 6 inning, no hit performance in his first start of the year.  That also wasn’t Tillman’s first venture into no-hitter territory, as he is only member of the O’s young pitching corps to have thrown a no-hitter in his professional career, his coming at AAA Norfolk.  I only mention these two performances together, despite their great difference in competition level, to demonstrate one thing: the potential is still there.  For all the outings where Tillman goes out and gets his brain beat in like his last outing vs KC, he can also look absolutely filthy at times.  Particularly when he’s getting ahead in the count and dropping that nasty Uncle Charlie on batters.  Then it’s game over.

The problem is, he almost never does get ahead of hitters.  His command is by far is his greatest weakness and the biggest thing holding him back from taking the next step.  During the game broadcast on MASN tonight, they showed the numbers of when he was ahead vs behind in the count, and the split was something like batters hitting .220 as opposed to .400.  Of course, all pitchers tend to have worse numbers when they are behind in the count, because since they have to throw strikes and the batter knows it, they become much more predictable.  But the splits here in Tillman’s case are exceptionally dramatic.

There are a couple reasons why I think Tillman struggles so badly when he is behind the count.  The first reason is that is his best pitches, by far, are his offspeed pitches, with the curve being absolutely devastating when he can control it.  But when you’re behind in the count, you really have to focus on throwing strikes, which forces Tillman to abandon those pitches and go mostly to his fastball, making him much more vulnerable.  This is particularly a problem for Tillman because his other main issue is that his fastball is really a below average pitch at this point in his career.  For one, it’s a very straight pitch with little to no movement, making it easy for batters to square up on.  What makes it even worse though is that because of his control problems, Tillman also has taken some velocity off of it in order to gain more control, leaving it usually between 89-92 mph.  So since it’s straight and relatively slow, his fastball at this point is really only effective as a ‘show me’ pitch to keeps batters honest or when he can throw it after changing speeds.

For the moment then, the most effective way for Tillman to pitch, and indeed the way he pitched tonight and in his first start of the year, is by pitching ‘backwards’.  This means throwing your offspeed pitchers early in the count to get ahead instead of your fastball, which is the more traditional approach. It’s not generally considered a good way to pitch because offspeed pitchers are usually more difficult to control, making relying them to get ahead dangerous. Offspeed pitches also tend to be much easier to do damage with if they are executed poorly, such as the infamous ‘hanging curve’. Nevertheless, until his command and fastball improves, this is going to be Tillman’s M.O. for the foreseeable future.

So, to recap:

He doesn’t always pitch well, but when he does, he throws no hitters.
He doesn’t always get ahead in the count, but when he does, it’s with offspeed pitches.

And best of all:

He doesn’t always win, but when he does, it’s at the age of 23.

Stay tuned, my friends.

I mean, what do you think, do you think someone actually designed me to look like this? Well here’s a newsflash for you, AC360: I was made in MarioPaint in 7 seconds and I’m more powerful than you will ever know.

Did you know that since I became the secondary team hat the Orioles have had exactly ZERO winning seasons?!?

OF COURSE YOU DIDN’T.

That’s because I hustle and flow in stealth mode like a upholstered Jackie Chan.

How do I do it?

Well, I start by fronting a look that’s straight out of CorelDRAW 2. Then I kick up 3 trillion notches by ninja kicking grammar DIRECTLY IN THE FACE. When was the last time you saw an apostrophe used to stand for “riole”?

Thought not.

You think I don’t know that I’m primarily found in the bargain bin at Marshalls?  It’s called a MARKETING STRATEGY neanderthal. While the rest of you idiots are busy lamenting the loss of the cartoon oriole face, I’m making my way into thousands of homes on the backs of undiscerning sister-in-laws and grandmas everywhere.

Pretty soon, it’s going to be Oriole’s, Nick Markaki’s and Camden Yard’s!

You think I’m making this up?!

I BET YOU WISH I WAS CRAPHAT!!!

I am a dark ark, the final hoarcrux of Lord Angelos, and I will have my bond.

Go pound sand.

In Guthrie’s last 3 starts, he has gone at least 6 innings and allowed 2 ER, 0 ER and 4 ER in those games respectively.  And he has a grand total of 0 wins to show for it.  At this point, it must seem like he’ll have to go the distance to get a win.  That feeling can only be compounded by the fact the O’s have never gotten him more than 11 wins for the season, even in a year where he posted at 3.83 ERA.  Aside from being yet another example of why wins are a worthless statistic for pitchers (I’m looking at you, everyone who said CC deserved the Cy Young over King Felix last year), you would think this constant disappointment would start to wear on him.

Indeed, Jim Palmer often mentions during O’s broadcasts how consistently getting little run support makes a pitcher feel like he has to be too ‘perfect’ on the mound, which of course leads to him trying too hard, overthrowing the ball and/or losing command, and ultimately performing worse.  But if that were going to be the case for Jeremy Guthrie, it sure would’ve happened by now.  And in fact, what has happened seems to be the exact opposite.

Take a look at what Guthrie himself had to say after going 7 IN and giving up 2 ER, but still taking the loss to the Twins: “I didn’t make the big pitches where I needed to. It’s a reoccurring thing and it’s not good enough, not good enough tonight, not good enough last time, not good enough the time before. So we’ll work on it, try to get better, make better pitches.” If you just read that and aren’t impressed, you may need to read it again, because that’s how winners talk. Not only is he not complaining or throwing any of his teammates under the bus, he is putting the blame entirely on himself, seemingly unfairly. All that seems to matter to Jeremy Guthrie is that his performance matches his own personal standards of excellence, which seem to be much higher than anyone else’s expectations of him, including my own.  And that is a comforting thought.

When I was at FanFest this year with my fellow ESB brothers, during the Q & A session for the starting pitchers, one guy stood up and asked Jeremy why the front office is always claiming they need to sign a veteran starter, because they already have a perfectly good one in him.  Jeremy was definitely appreciative of the guy’s kind words, but I won’t lie, I was probably more choked up about it than he was.  It just felt so good to hear someone vocalize our appreciation for everything he does, for everything he is, and for his unwavering pursuit of professional excellence in his craft that shows that he cares just as much as we do.  As fans, that is all we can really ask for.  And with Jeremy Guthrie, you know that you’re always going to get it.

It all started out so well, didn’t it?  The Orioles flying high with a 4–0 record, pitching lights out, sweeping the Rays and leading the division.  Ah, the memories.  Since that time, the Orioles have been dreadful—not scoring runs when they get good pitching, other times not pitching well enough to even keep the team in the game, and most of the time finding a way to make a crucial mistake in a key situation.

For whatever reason, the Orioles seem to be just good enough to lose in heartbreaking fashion recently.

Yesterday’s defeat was particularly tough to take.  As much as I want to see all the positives that came out of it, the way they battled back after an embarrassing performance the previous evening, the way they worked Mariano Rivera and found a way to score a run in the bottom of the ninth, ultimately, what I’ll remember most is that this team can’t seem to avoid making critical errors when it matters most.

As Buck likes to remind us during commercial breaks, the Yankees aren’t spotted 3 runs because they have the largest payroll in baseball.  And while I think his comments are intended to communicate that his team won’t shy away from competition, I think we also need to interpret them to mean that we should divest ourselves of the notion that it’s reasonable to be satisfied just by playing well against successful teams.

While I understand the desire on the part of some fans to admire the way the team battled back in a tough situation, I think in order for the team to get back on the right track in the long term, we need to stop placing the Yankees and Red Sox on a pedestal by using them as a barometer of our own accomplishment.  In doing so, we’re only further aggrandizing their position, and lending merit to the notion that to have a good showing against them, irrespective of the result, is sufficient to demonstrate progress.

I would like to propose that it’s not.

Winning is sufficient to demonstrate progress.

While I respect and admire Mariano Rivera’s ability, I don’t want to hear about how we battled back and played hard against him.  The bottom line is that we lost.  Again.

Perhaps our outlook on a game like the one we had yesterday, or the current streak in which we find ourselves, is a function of how we perceived the team’s potential for success this season.  To the extent that any of us were optimistic (and I certainly was) it seems to me to be a contradiction in logic to suggest that we’re poised for success, but will readily celebrate a loss.

One of the quotes that stuck out in my mind when Showalter was introduced as manager last season was a quip about how he’ll know when he has the right players.  “We need more people who are upset after we lose,” Showalter said.

I agree.

While I’m not suggesting that Nick Markakis needs to take a baseball bat to the Gatorade machine after losing a single game in extra innings, I do think there needs to be a visceral response on the part of a team that starts out 6–1 and then proceeds to lose 10 of the next 12. Especially when that team has a history of letting whole seasons get away from them due to protracted losing streaks that send them into a tailspin.

While I stand firm in my belief that this is an improved baseball team, maybe even a greatly improved baseball team, it’s times like these that make me begin to wonder what unbelievable collection of talent will be required for the Orioles to escape from the shadow of their recent past.

We know it can happen.  We all watched it happen at the end of last season.  What remains to be seen, however, is if we can do it when it matters—if we can string together more wins than anyone in the AL East when we’re not already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

I think we can do it; I hope that we can.  But maybe in order to do it, we need to stop looking for silver linings, and start expecting wins.

Wieters has been mashing the last two series. He’s displaying power, patience and a flair for coming up with the big hit.  Over his last seven games he’s hit .368 with 7H, 2HR, 2B, and 7RBIs.   If you saw Wednesday night’s game of the Twins series, you probably saw him destroy a pitch to right-CF (411 ft). I remind you, this is April weather where batted balls tend to die on the warning track. Needless to say, watching all of this transpire has been thrilling.

But is it real? Is it sustainable? The only reason we’re all asking this question, after a singly brief hot streak, is because of his pedigree and the reputation that preceeds him. Don’t lie, I know you were thinking the same thing. Certainly other lesser hitters have done more in a short time span (see Wigginton, Ty).  So what are we to make of all of this?

I think we Oriole fans need to be cautious with our beliefs and emotions. Let’s reserve judgement until later in the year…when Wieters wins MVP. Indeed, so far Wieters has more of a track record for a .275/.325/.400 line (see what I did there?).  Not exactly lighting the world on fire.  But let’s look closer at his current numbers. His 2011 slash line sits at .269/.345/.519. Granted, this is a small sample  (we’re not even through April!), but it will be fun to look back later to see if this was the beginning of a trend.

In the few PAs (54) he’s accumulated so far, we’re seeing his BB-rate stay where it was in 2010 at a solid 9.3-9.4%. But, his K-rate has drop to 16.7% from around 23% the previous two years, which is astounding. Is he swinging at fewer bad pitches? Is he merely hitting those pitches now? Maybe this is not sustainable long term, but we should take a closer look to understand what’s different.

The “Total” represents his cumulative plate dicipline numbers from 2009-2011. This bit of information tells us that Wieters has been more patient than his career average when in comes to swinging at pitches out of the zone (O-swing%) and in the strike zone (Z-swing%). This is important in regard to K% because it means that if Wieters swings at fewer pitches, he potentially will strike out swinging less. But let’s consider his contact rates.

Interestingly, Wieters is making less contact over all, noticably on pitches in the zone. However, he’s actually seeing a slightly greater percentage of pitches in the strike zone from the start (Zone%). Wieters is also making sightly better contact on pitches out of the zone.  Compared to his career discipline numbers, it’s encouraging to see that he’s swinging at fewer overall pitches from the start. Perhaps the slight increase in strikes that he’s seeing can be attributed to this? Or maybe this is all a minor fluctuation in the small sample size. There could be any number of explanations, so probably can’t draw much from this yet.  But you saw it here first if I’m right, and I’ll banish this post to the depths of the internet if this post ever proves me wrong.

However, the biggest difference that we’ve seen is he’s driving the ball with authority.  His SLG is over .500 (a power hitter’s benchmark) with an isolated slugging (ISO) of .250. In case you aren’t familiar, ISO is a measure of all extra base hits while isolating BB, IBB, HBP and singles.  Again, small sample size.  But, wow what a difference.  Admittedly, I was getting used to Wieters hitting long singles.  But if we look at his hit chart, he’s spraying the ball all over the field, including the outfield stands.  Basically,  Wieters looks great at the plate right.  The scary part of all this, is his batting-average-on-balls-in-play (BABIP) is at .275.  League average tends to float around .290-.300.  Wieters’ career BABIP is .314.  If his BABIP regresses back to–at least–league average which it will likely do, he’s going to actually get better.  If it regresses to his career number, then he’s going to get noticeably better.

Could this be the year that Wieters breaks out in the majors like he broke out in the minors in 2008?  He’s already an exciting player to watch behind the plate. When considering his workmanship, consistency, and aptitude, I would dare to call him the most important member of the O’s young pitching staff.  If he emerges in 2011 like everyone hoped back in 2009, then the Orioles will have something serious to behold.

You see, it’s not even primarily the losing the bothers me. Though, of course, the losing bothers me a lot. To be blunt, the team’s performance recently has been nothing short of embarrassing and unacceptable.  But no, what it is that really bothers me, what really erodes my faith in the team, is the nonchalant acceptance of that failure, the almost passive attitude towards it.  Apart from being completely distasteful to those who have heard enough promises of a better tomorrow and grown completely tired of waiting for that day, what these words say to us as fans is that the team doesn’t care as much as we do. Maybe that’s wrong, maybe that’s unfair, but when you’ve suffered as much as we have, it’s reality.  So if you’re not going to deliver on the results, at least give us accountability.

Yeah I know, you keep telling us that these guys have ‘track records’ and that they’ll figure it out. The problem with that is that it sounds too much like the same loser mentality we’ve heard for the past 13 years, and not at all like the tone you had when you first arrived. You’re the one who reminded us that today is always the day to get the job done right and showed us that success isn’t a product of inevitability but rather preparation. You showed us that things don’t get better until you demand that they do. It seems to me like accepting subpar performances, and in my opinion, efforts, is not only destined to beget more failure but also contradicts everything you stand for.

Early on, you said that you understood that there are fans out there who live and die with the team, with every pitch. You claimed you understood that there is a special covenant between the fans and the team, and that as manager it was up to you to ensure the team lived up to its end of the bargain, because the fans had suffered enough. What happened to that?

We’re still here. And there are many of us who probably aren’t going anywhere no matter what happens. But if you want us there shouting down Yankees fans, then be prepared for our anger and frustration at times like these, because passion is a two way street. We haven’t given up on you or the team yet, but it’s time to stop making excuses and start making things right.

We deserve better.  And we deserve it now.

When this signing was made, I was against it.  I knew going into the offseason that Gregg was bound to get a stupid contract from some team for collecting 37 ‘saves’, possibly the most worthless statistic in baseball.  I just hoped it wouldn’t be the Orioles.  But the attraction of adding another former Cub to his collection and his proclivity for acquiring overrated, expensive relievers (see Michael Gonzalez) was too much for MacPhail to resist.

As we all know, not all saves are created equal, as they range from having to hold leads of 1-3 runs. But after looking at Gregg’s 2011 stats more closely, I’m betting most of his saves were of the 2-3 run variety, because his numbers were pretty pedestrian.  The ERA itself was pretty high for a reliever at 3.72, but the 7.9 H/9, and 1.390 WHIP are much more telling and show that he simply gives the opposition too many chances in the back end of games.

To add insult to injury, there were also whispers that Gregg had to be promised the closer’s job in order to sign him.  MacPhail and Showalter both denied it, but the fact that Gregg has gotten both save chances so far, the first of which was only saved by Nick Markakis’s godlike ability, seems to indicate otherwise.  If such a promise was made, it’s an unforgivable act of stupidity. But even assuming it wasn’t, I think continuing to use Gregg in save situations or even close games is almost as bad.  The stuff is just too ‘hittable’, as evidenced by the above peripheral stats, and with Koji throwing the way he is, he  needs to get the ball in tight games most of the time. And if not Koji, then Jim Johnson.

We all enjoy the promo where Buck reminds us that he ‘doesn’t care too much for the save rule’ and prefers ‘the win rule a little more’. It’s time for Buck to back up that talk with his actions, because right now I can think of another meaning for his initials that seems more appropriate.

Hey, at least one of my predictions is coming true.